This morning, I read a report on technology device ownership in 2015; it is published by the Pew Research Center and based on the Center’s research. If their data on changes in device ownership can be relied upon as forecast tool, smart phones will largely overtake e-book readers in the near term.
In early 2014, the percentage of U.S. adults who owned e-book readers was about 32%. The research just reported shows a sharp decline to just 19%. At the same time, smart phone ownership has climbed from 35% in 2011 to 68% today, with 89% of 18 to 29 year olds owning the devices today.
I am, at times, a research junkie; I look at such data and attempt to forecast the future. Yet my attempts to use data to make predictions inevitably leads to looking for more information. So it is this morning. After reading the study I mentioned above, I sought information on trends in the format of book consumption. While e-readers seem to be losing their prominence to smart phones among those who consume books electronically, print remains the primary format for books; at least it held primacy in 2013, according to the Pew Research Centers report on the subject, released in 2014. According to Pew, 76% of Americans read at least one book during 2013; out of that group, 69% read a print version, while 28% read an e-book.
If I look strictly at data, I might assume the future of print books is bleak, but that future will play out more slowly than others have suggested. The changes from print to electronic books are taking place, but they are not taking place at the blazing speed I once imagined. Yet the figures for older people skew figures for the whole population. The younger readers, ages 18 to 49, were much more likely to have read an e-book in 2013 than younger readers; between 32% and 37%, versus 28% for the population at large.
I was a bit surprised that youngest readers (ages 18-29) were a little more likely to have read at least one book during the year than were the next most voracious reading group, those aged 50 to 64, 77% of whom read at least one book.
The bottom line? Hell, I don’t know! The data can be interpreted almost any way I might want; but the truths buried in them are hard to uncover. My sense is that readership, in general, is falling and will continue to fall in the U.S.A. Of those who read, most will continue to prefer print books for a while, but the convenience of, and improvements in, technology, probably will make e-books more and more attractive to larger and larger numbers of readers. The shift to print-on-demand, which has already taken place, will continue to reduce high-volume print runs of all but the most popular best-sellers. Authors will increasingly rely on royalties from electronic versions of their works, versus royalties from print sales. I expect electronic versions of books to increase in price, though not substantially; the reason is this: the almost infinitesimal royalties from e-book sales cannot sustain a writer, even a popular writer (unless I misunderstand electronic royalties, which is entirely possible).
It’s all speculation. That’s all it is. I’m a speculator. At least it causes me to think.