Predicting the Future

Data encoded onto reel-to-reel magnetic tape and expressed in the form of sound were expected to replace black vinyl discs that performed the same function. Similarly, machinery dependent on more modern magnetic tape recorded video images, then displayed on electronic monitors, were thought to spell the death of plastic film that captured “motion pictures.” Reel-to-reel magnetic tape recordings were made almost obsolete with the introduction of eight-track tapes and cassette tapes. Equipment that allowed video to be physically projected onto a screen (along with accompanying sound delivered through speakers) was all but replaced by even more modern video equipment that decoded magnetically-recorded images directly onto monitors. These newer, more modern, technologies reached their peak in a matter of just a few years, giving way to audio and video recordings on compact discs (CDs) which, a little later, were also were made obsolete by technology that permitted all kinds of data to be recorded on miniature magnetic media that could be stored on “thumb drives” and later made available through online streaming. “Old” technologies, once hailed as the wave of the future, limped into oblivion, superseded by ever-more-astonishing developments.

The same kinds of advancements that led to streaming video, cellphones, “smart” appliances, and other developments that seem closer to science fiction than to reality are likely to continue into the future, but at a much faster pace. Social media, one of today’s ubiquitous modern miracles, is apt to fall victim to the same creativity and technological advancements that gave it birth. Facebook, America Online (AOL), MySpace, TikTok, Instagram, Threads, and others seem embedded in our culture today, but a host of factors are likely to drive  their replacement or demise. The dark underbelly of social media, which is in part driving the erosion of civility and the consequent erasure of reliable streams of information, ultimately will create sufficient backlash to provide an engine for revolutionary change in the social media landscape. Most, if not all, of our modern marvels will fall victim to their own inadequacies; their own failure to properly prepare their eager consumers to use them intelligently, responsibly, and in a relatively sophisticated manner. Whether their replacements will follow the same path remains to be seen.

These matters have been on my mind for quite some time now. In fact, I expected the likes of Facebook and X and so forth to have faded into oblivion by now. It appears that Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk and their cronies are more intimately knowledgeable about the longevity timelines of their creations than I. That notwithstanding, I stand by my assertion that their products either will evolve into something far more sophisticated or decay into embarrassing memories of humans’ unsophisticated gullibility. So, too, will technologies evolve. If I had money and a reasonable expectation that I will live long enough to see the results, I would bet quite a lot on being right.

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The future of Time is impossible to predict. Time cannot exist without a future, but neither can the future exist without Time. The past, on the other hand, is immutable; with or without Time, the past has already taken place, so it is not subject to adjustment in the same way that the future can be modified. But the past once was the future, so Time must have shaped the past as surely as it shapes the future. How can the past, though, be independent of Time, yet be irrevocably tethered to it? Just as yesterday is the past tense of today and the preamble to the future, the past and the present are the preambles to tomorrow. Tomorrow cannot exist in the absence of Time. Is Time dependent on activity? Or in the absence of activity, does Time cease to exist? Why do we need Time? Is Time a necessary concept? Could humans get by without acknowledging the existence of Time? Time cannot be tasted, seen, touched, smelled, or heard, so it is generally not considered one of our “five senses.” But if Time can be experienced, how can that be in the absence of a sense to detect it? Perhaps our five senses can exist only in the presence of Time? How, then, does Time relate to smell or taste? Maybe Time is a required in order to experience any of the five senses?

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I missed my connecting flight last night because I lost my boarding pass. Janine and Carol must have made the connection, but I was delayed because it took so long to get the customer service agent to produce a replacement and because the gate agent would not hold the flight for me. I might have made it, had the departure gate not been so far away and had the gate agent not ignored me for so long and had I not been so naive as to show a man my new boarding pass. My flight was to leave from gate 5; I was at gate 51, which was next to gate 5, but gate 5 could be entered only from the other side of the people mover. The people mover was very slow and had to circle the entire airport to get to gate 5. The man, dressed in a jacket that looked different from other airline employees, asked to see my boarding pass, then put it in his breast pocket and said he would go check it out. He did not return. I was embarrassed that I kept not evidence that I have been given a replacement pass and that I must have given my boarding pass to a stranger who was not connected to the airline. I was resigned to the fact that I would be fired because I missed the flight; but also because I had not turned in expense reimbursement requests for dozens of other flights. I awoke this morning in a state of intense stress.